Six classic, price-based indicators, open weights, one plain-English answer.
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The indicators
Price vs. long-term averages
BTC price200-day MA730-day MA730-day MA × 5
Log scale, last ~4 years.
How the score works
Each indicator is converted to a 0–100 “heat” value by sliding linearly between a cool anchor (0) and a hot anchor (100). The composite is the plain average — every indicator has equal weight. Nothing is hidden or tuned.
Limits — please read
Tiny sample. These indicators were fitted to only about 3–4 past cycles (2013, 2017, 2021, and arguably 2024–25). That's not enough to be statistically confident about anything.
They may be weakening. Spot ETFs, institutional holders, and a maturing market may mean tops come earlier, later, or at lower multiples than history suggests. Several of these indicators already “missed” or fired early in recent cycles.
Thresholds are conventions. The levels used here (2.4 Mayer, 5× 2-year MA, RSI 80, etc.) are widely quoted historical rules of thumb, not laws.
Price-only. On-chain metrics (MVRV, NUPL, etc.) are not included in v1.
Not financial advice. This is an educational dashboard. A “hot” reading does not mean price will fall, and a “cool” reading does not mean it won't. Do your own research.
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